Last Cast Letter #27: The Oldest Adage Still Applies

The 3 magic words still mean the most in real estate

March 31, 2025

Hi All - Happy Monday. It’s the last day of the month, which means it’s time for the Last Cast Letter.

Crew — it’s 3:10 PM on Monday, March 31, 2025, and I haven’t started this newsletter yet. Usually, I get a jump start about halfway through the month, but March was a busy one. So here we are — writing from scratch, right now.

That means this edition is a little off the cuff. A little raw. And honestly, I’m excited about that.

I’ve always wanted this newsletter to feel like a real conversation — as if you and I missed our connecting flight and we’re stuck at the airport bar for six hours, talking life, real estate, the economy, politics, and sports.

So: What’s on your mind? What are you paying attention to? What am I missing?

Tell me. Seriously — I’d love to go down a rabbit hole, come back, and unpack it with you.

For me, in March, two Wall Street Journal articles stuck with me the most (shout-out to my father-in-law for sending me the second one). They both offered a simple but powerful reminder: in real estate, the old adage still applies: location, location, location. Let’s start with the first article:

Here are a few quotes that jumped out:

“The stately boulevard created in the late 1800s is still one of the hottest office markets in the country. Park Avenue buildings command some of the highest office rents anywhere.”

“It’s the best place you can be on the Monopoly board,” said David Levinson, whose L&L Holding is the developer of 425 Park Avenue.

“Just two blocks away on Third Avenue, desperate landlords are offering 75% discounts to the going rates on Park Avenue. But tenants seeking the Park Avenue cachet aren’t interested.”

“That is true even during one of the worst office downturns since World War II... Park Avenue’s vacancy rate has fallen to 8.9%, its lowest since the end of 2018. Manhattan and U.S. office vacancy overall sits at 16.1%.”

That “Monopoly board” comment and the stat about Third Avenue really hit me. Levinson has skin in the game, sure, but he’s not wrong. Park Avenue is literally baked into our cultural subconscious — thanks in part to a board game — as the place to own real estate.

And yet, just two blocks away, you can get a 75% discount on rent... and people still don’t want it. That says something.

I remember a retail space on 34th and Third that could never keep a tenant longer than a year. It cycled through nail salons and pizza joints like clockwork — despite being in what you'd think was a high-foot-traffic area of Murray Hill. But locals knew: that spot was cursed.

This is where local knowledge wins. If you’ve lived in a city for 2, 5, 10, or 20 years, you start to understand the invisible forces — the weird corners and magic blocks — that only true locals pick up on. And that's where the old adage holds truest:

Location reigns supreme — especially at the hyper-local level. The second article also drives this home:

Here are a few quotes that stood out:

“The Northeast and Midwest markets have far more prospective buyers than available homes. But parts of the Sunbelt are seeing a flood of houses for sale.”

“In Southern Florida, builders are dangling significant incentives to sell newly built homes. Investors, second-home owners, and retirees are putting homes on the market to escape storm damage and rising insurance rates... 78% of real-estate agents say sellers outnumber buyers there.”

“In the Northeast, new construction is constrained by land availability and zoning limitations... 81% of agents said buyers outnumber sellers there.”

Some thoughts:

At the 30,000-foot level, the WSJ is spot-on. But I do think they cherry-picked some locations to make the contrast starker. For example, they referenced a bidding war over a ranch-style house in Wyckoff, NJ that sold in just over a week.

This makes sense. Many firms (especially NYC-based) are enforcing back-to-office mandates. Millennials who got a taste of remote work, and are now starting families, don’t want to live in Manhattan anymore. They're heading for the burbs.

Places like Wyckoff will benefit. Same with towns like Wellesley, MA — which was just named the next “boomtown” in America.

In general, any town within an hour of a major U.S. city that offers more space at a more affordable price — and has good schools, natural amenities, and a charming downtown — is probably a smart bet. These places check the boxes for aging millennials:

✅ Room for a family
✅ Good food + coffee shops
✅ A bit of buzz
✅ Proximity to the city

To illustrate, here’s where Wyckoff is in relation to NYC:

Now, I don’t disagree that parts of South Florida and other Sunbelt cities are softening — but again, zoom in a little and it’s not so simple.

The WSJ pointed to a house on 15210 SW 15th St in Miami that only got one lowball offer. But that home is pretty far out there — not surprising.

Meanwhile, homes in Key Biscayne, Coconut Grove, and Morningside are still selling if priced right. These areas offer the trifecta: natural beauty, good schools, and vibrant communities. Plus, you're close to Brickell and Downtown.

There’s a house on Key Biscayne that was on the market for less than a month. It’s under contract for over the asking price.

The Throughline

To me, both articles point to the same takeaway: real estate is local — painfully, obsessively, hyper-specifically local.

Even two blocks apart, pricing can swing by 75%. Even in a “down market,” some pockets are booming. And even in popular metros, certain neighborhoods are just... cursed.

So what’s the move? Do your homework. Walk the block. Talk to locals. Know the difference between Park Avenue and Third.

As always, send any thoughts, ideas, or articles my way.

In the meantime, if you’re interested in investing alongside us, click the button below and fill out our form.

— Brooks